The asymmetric information and price manipulation in stock market

The interaction between asymmetrically informed traders has been mostly investigated in theoretical frameworks. Not only there are relatively few empirical studies but, if any, the mostly focus on cross-sectional analysis and use very short samples. In this study, we blend theoretic with empirical, and propose a new signalling system of turning points in the economy to examine the extent of volatility of these markets relative to their tranquil periods. The signalling system proposed here is based on the Markov-switching model. Differing from the existing literatures, the study employs three phases and time-varying transition probability, and captures the states of volatility. After examining the causality between high volatility and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) by using moving average and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, the portfolio's profitability of FPI and individual investors in different periods are compared. Finally, the investigation of FPI's leading effect is studied.     

PRIOR ELICITATION IN MULTIPLE CHANGE‐POINT MODELS*

This article discusses Bayesian inference in change‐point models. The main existing approaches treat all change‐points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change‐points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change‐points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as “noninformative,” and treats the number of change‐points as unknown. Artificial and real data exercises show how these different priors can have a substantial impact on estimation and prediction.     

Joint pricing and design of urban highways with spatial and user group heterogeneity

This paper addresses the joint optimization of capacity investments and toll charges imposed on multi-group users in monopolistic private highways within general road networks. A game-theoretic formulation is provided that leads to a nonconvex bilevel program. The proposed modeling framework handles several complex issues raised in realistic applications, such as regulations on the levels of tolls and service, and the discrete nature of highway capacity, using a genetic optimization technique. Real-application results show the importance of considering the spatial heterogeneity of prices, and the tradeoff between investments and pricing strategies in regulated private highways.     

Tax and green transport plans: a survey of UK experience

The widespread adoption of Green Transport Plans (GTPs) by employers has become an important aim of the UK government transport policy as it tries to find ways of reducing transport demand. However, the tax treatment of employee benefits that form part of many GTPs has been identified by the government and others as a potential barrier to their adoption. Based on telephone interviews with employers and meetings with tax and transport experts, this paper confirms this perception. It also explains precisely how tax forms a barrier to GTP implementation, reviews the approaches taken to this problem in three other countries and makes outline proposals for reform and further research.     

Following the story: narrative mapping as a mobile method for tracking and interrogating spatial narratives

Museums and heritage tourism sites are highly curated places of memory work whose function is the assembling and ordering of space and narrative to contour visitors’ experiences of the past. Variations in such experiences within and between sites, however, necessitates a method that: (1) captures how guides, visitors, and exhibits interact within spaces when representing and performing history and (2) allows researchers to document those variations. We developed narrative mapping, a mobile and geographically sensitive form of participant observation, to enable museum scholars and professionals to systematically capture, visualize, and interpret tendencies and variations in the content, affective qualities, and spatial arrangements of museum narratives over multiple sites and across multiple tours at the same site. Two antebellum plantation museum case studies, Laura Plantation in Louisiana and Virginia’s Berkeley Plantation, demonstrate the method’s utility in documenting how stories are spatially configured and materially enlivened in order to analyze the ways enslaved persons are placed within these narratives.     

An even simpler differential demand system

Keller (1984) proposed three simple variants of the well-known Rotterdam demand model. This paper proposes an even simpler differential demand system which has some attractive properties and is easy to estimate. The new model is estimated with Dutch and British data.     

Strategic and Marketing Implications of Consumer Behaviour in Financial Services

As competitive liberalisation and the application of technology in the creation and distribution of financial services have increased consumer choice in the UK personal financial service industry, so consumer choice in the UK personal financial services industry, so consumer behaviour has assumed a greater role in determining the strategic environment in which financial service providers operate. This paper explores the reltionship between consumer behaviour and the strategic choices facing financial consumer behaviour and the strategic choices facing financial service firms by developing a framework of consumer behaviour and linking the forms of behaviour and type of financial service instrument that determines the strategic environment within which financial service providers operate. Based on that interaction the paper develops a contingency view of financial services strategy and argues that to be successful, financial service providers will need to move away from broad service provision and adopt more focused strategies that reflect far more closely the strategic environment in which they operate.     

Criminalizing price-fixing

We assess whether recent US Department of Justice (DOJ) price-fixing cases exhibit characteristics that are associated theoretically with optimal use of criminal law. We take our welfare standard from seminal work on optimal legal design. Optimal legal design recognizes the private and public elements present in all areas of the law. The mixed results show that the characteristics to be expected in criminal cases are not all present in the DOJ cases. Criminal sanctions applied in these collusive antitrust cases do however show significant responsiveness to some of the variables derived from the economic analysis of criminal law.